Tsunami, Earthquakes, Hurricanes, Volcanic Eruptions, Climate Change and other Natural and Man-Made Hazards and Disasters - Disaster Archaeology, Other Miscellaneous Writings Enter your search terms Submit search form The Next Great California Earthquake UNDERSTANDING WHY, WHERE AND WHEN IT WILL HAPPEN A factual, well-researched book of earthquake & tsunami disasters in California, with an in-depth analysis of fault behaviors & explanation of where & when the next great earthquake will be. by: George Pararas-Carayannis, Ph.D. © 2000 / Library of Congess / All rights reserved - ISBN: 0-9709725-0-4 ABOUT THE AUTHOR ORDER BOOK ABOUT THE BOOK & TABLE OF CONTENTS Do you live in California and Are YOU prepared for "THE BIG ONE"? DO YOU know .... what earthquakes are? Why they happen? What destructive earthquakes have done in California? Whether and how they can be predicted? DO YOU know if you live near an active California fault? ARE YOU aware of the fault behaviors? ARE YOU aware of California's tsunami threat? Would YOU like to know Where and When the next big California earthquake will strike? If you are interested in earthquakes, causes of earthquakes, fault behaviors, in general, or if you have answered yes to any of the above questions ....................... THEN THIS BOOK ABOUT THE " BIG ONE" IS FOR YOU !!! Millions of California residents live near one of the most seismic regions in the world, the San Andreas fault. In 1989, the Loma Prieta earthquake was devastating. In 1994 the Northridge earthquake was terribly disastrous. However, neither of these earthquakes will compare to the next catastrophic earthquake due to strike California in a matter of a few years, OR SOONER. "The Big One" is a fully illustrated book about earthquakes in California: what they are, why they happen, where they occur, what they have done, how they can be predicted and information related to public safety. Through easy questions and answers, "The Big One" takes you on a historical journey of past earthquake disasters, and explores contemporary knowledge regarding California earthquakes and their causes. It reviews current evidence collected on the faults of California, their present behavior, describes what can be expected in the future and what will happen when the next large, devastating earthquake, the Big One, strikes. Written in simple language,"The Big One" discusses California's earthquake and tsunami hazard potential, and gives a breakdown of specific geographical regions that have the highest risk. It provides an overview of earthquake prediction. Finally, on the basis of solid scientific evidence, it answers basic questions as to where and when The Big One, will strike so that measures for public safety can be taken. "The Big One" is superb book which combines hard science with simple facts. It reviews the current knowledge and provides information that improves understanding and puts California's earthquake danger in proper perspective. It summarizes, in an easy way, information that can affect public awareness and public policy and, therefore, contribute to the protection of life and property. Whether you are a student interested in the earth sciences, a public official concerned about public safety, a scientist interested in a quick factual reference, or simply a California resident interested in the safety of your family and a realistic overview of California's earthquake risk, then this book on "The Big One" is for you ORDER BOOK TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTERS 1- 17 1. The Big One What happened in Northern California at 5:04 P.M., on 17 October 1989? What is a possible scenario for the Big One in California? How California's Civil Defense Responds and Mobilizes? Disaster Reports from: Kern County Los Angeles County Orange County Riverside County San Bernardino County Santa Barbara County Ventura County Is this only a Partial Scenario of the Big One? / What Could Really Happen? 2. Causes of Earthquakes -Fundamental Principles What are the causes of earthquakes in California and around the world? The Earth and Its Interior How Big is our earth? / How do we know what the earth's interior is like? What is the earth's core made of? / What processes contribute to the high temperatures in the interior of the earth? / What is the earth's mantle? What are the mantle's convection cells and currents? How fast do convection currents move within the earth's mantle? What is the "Mohorovicic Discontinuity"? The Earth's Crust and Forces Acting Upon It How is the earth's crust created? / How thick is the earth's crust? How do convection currents in the earth's interior affect the earth's crust? How do the forces within the earth's interior cause earthquakes on its surface? Where is the earth's crust most unstable? Sea Floor Spreading, Plate Tectonics and Continental Drift How magnetic field studies of the earth contributed to theories that help in our understanding of earthquakes? / How are the rates of crustal movements measured? What is the theory of Plate Tectonics? / How do tectonic plates move? How fast do tectonic plates move? What is the theory of Sea Floor Spreading? / How do we know that the ocean floor spreads? / How are mid-ocean ridges and ocean volcanoes formed? / How are the great ocean floor fractures created? Which are some of the best known great ocean floor fractures? What is the theory of Continental Drift? / How do continents float? / How do we know that the earth's continents drift? / How fast are the continents drifting? / How are volcanoes, mountains and other major geological features formed? Is part of California moving or drifting? Destruction of the Earth's Crust How subduction destroys the Earth's crust ? / What is the Benioff zone? How are the deep ocean trenches formed? Earthquakes What are earthquakes? / What would happen if there were no earthquakes on earth? How do tectonic plate movements cause earthquakes? Where do earthquakes occur? / Where do the great earthquakes occur? Are large earthquakes limited only to areas of subduction? Which are the earth's major seismic belts? / Where is the Transhimalaian seismic belt? Where is the Circum-Pacific seismic belt? / Why is the Circum-Pacific Seismic Belt called the "Pacific ring of fire"? / What are the causes of earthquakes along the Pacific Ring of Fire ? / Why does Japan experience so many destructive earthquakes? What are the causes of large earthquakes in the Aleutian islands and in Alaska? Plate Tectonics and Earthquake Prediction How do the great tectonic plates interact to the north of California? Can Plate Tectonics be used to predict earthquakes? What studies of tectonic plate interactions could help in predicting earthquakes? Destructive Earthquakes Which was the most devastating earthquake in history in terms of lives lost? Which were the strongest earthquakes in the 20th century? What was the great Tangshan Earthquake in China? What are the Causes of Earthquakes in California? What tectonic processes are responsible for earthquakes in California? Why do earthquakes occur so frequently in California? What is California's Transform Fault System? How was the San Andreas Fault System created? Do large earthquakes occur along the entire length of the San Andreas Fault? How do the great ocean floor fractures relate to earthquake activity in California? 3. Understanding California's Earthquakes - Fundamental Principles What is seismology? Historical Perspective Is Seismology an old science? / Who was the father of modern seismology? / When did earthquake science begin in the U.S.? / Who were some of the early American seismologists? What was the significance of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake? How comprehensive is seismic research in California? What are some of the significant advances and challenges for the future? Faults and Faulting What is a fault? / What are the different types of faulting? / What kind of earthquake faulting occurs in California? / How can hard rocks deform elastically along a fault? What is the "theory of elastic rebound"? / What is fault creep? / How can fault creep be used to predict the magnitudes of future earthquakes? Understanding California Earthquakes How frequently do earthquakes occur around the world? / What Triggers Earthquakes? What is the relationship of strain on a fault to earthquakes? How is strain used to estimate the recurrence of earthquakes in California? How much strain was released by the October 17, 1989, Loma Prieta earthquake in California? / How reliable are strain measurements in determining how soon earthquakes will strike again California? How does earthquake energy travel? / What are seismic waves? / How are seismic waves generated? / What are "primary", "compressional" or P-waves? / What are "secondary", "shear" or S-waves? / What are "surface" waves? / What is seismic wave refraction? / How do studies of seismic waves help determine earthquake motions and fault slip? How are earthquakes recorded? / How are earthquakes located? What other methods exist for locating earthquakes? Earthquake Magnitude and Intensity What is earthquake magnitude? / What is the difference between earthquake magnitude and intensity? / What is the Richter scale? / How does earthquake's energy release relate to magnitude? / What other methods are used to measure earthquake energy release and size? / What is the Seismic Moment of an earthquake? / How does the seismic moment of an earthquake relate to its Richter magnitude? How is earthquake depth determined? What is earthquake intensity? / Is the intensity of an earthquake the same everywhere? How was earthquake intensity initially measured? / What was the original Mercalli scale? What is the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale? / What is an earthquake intensity map? What is an isoseismal? 4. Experiencing the Big One What will the ground movements be like and how long will they last? Will the shaking cause ground liquefaction? What will happen to buildings? Why and how buildings may fail? What kind of noises may be expected? Will light and other electrical phenomena appear before or after the Big One strikes? What kind of odors may be produced? ORDER BOOK 5. Can California's earthquakes and the Big One be predicted? How does earthquake prediction differ from earthquake forecasting? What are short, intermediate and long term earthquake predictions? Who conducts earthquake prediction research in California? What is the status of earthquake prediction research in California? What are some of the methods used in earthquake prediction? How reliable are studies of plate tectonics in earthquake prediction? How reliable are studies of elastic deformation in predicting major earthquakes and the Big One? / How reliable are the historical/statistical probability methods of earthquake prediction in California? / How reliable are overall earthquake predictions in California? Have the Chinese been more successful in predicting big earthquakes? What are some of the dangers of predicting the Big One in California? Will earthquake prediction ever become a reality? 6. What methods are used to predict earthquakes in California? What are some of the additional methods and instruments used for earthquake prediction in California? How are statistical methods used to predict California earthquakes? How is the recurrence frequency of California earthquakes estimated? How does earthquake clustering interfere with estimating the recurrence frequency of California earthquakes? How is the Seismic Gap Theory used in the statistical prediction of California earthquakes? What physical/geochemical measurements and observations are used to forecast or predict California earthquakes? Why are crustal deformation studies important in earthquake prediction? Which are some of the earthquakes precursor events that can be measured to predict earthquakes? / What are the causes of earthquake precursor phenomena? How reliable are earthquake precursor events in predicting earthquakes? How will precursory phenomena help predict earthquakes in the future? What is "Dilatancy" and why the crust of the earth near a fault deforms before an earthquake? How are changes in the tilt of the ground used to predict earthquakes? Why are strain measurements made along active faults? How are changes in the strain and slip along faults used in earthquake prediction? How reliable are strain measurements in earthquake prediction? Why are slip rate measurements made along active faults? Why are fault creep measurements made? How is fault creep measured? How are past earthquakes dated with use of slip rates? Why are measurements of fault creep along active faults significant in predicting earthquakes in California? How are trees used to date earthquakes and measure past ground movements along faults? How is the water level of wells affected before and after an earthquake? How can wells act as seismometers to measure earthquake waves? Why is hydrogen being monitored in the prediction of earthquakes? How is radon gas used in earthquake prediction? Can clouds be used in earthquake prediction? What is the Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method of earthquake prediction? Can animal behavior be monitored to predict earthquakes? How animal behavior has helped in the prediction of some earthquakes in China? How is animal behavior research in China expected to help in the prediction of future earthquakes? How can research in animal behavior help design sensitive seismic sensors that could be used in short term earthquake prediction? How can animals be used in an operational earthquake warning system? 7. How is California's earthquake risk determined and evaluated? What are the earthquake risk zoning categories? / How is earthquake risk determined? How does the earthquake risk vary by location? How are statistical techniques used in earthquake risk analysis? How is earthquake risk mapped and zoned? / What is microzonation of the earthquake hazard? / Why is it important to determine and evaluate the earthquake risk in California? Why is mapping of faults and studies of past earthquakes important in evaluating the earthquake risk in California? Which is the law that requires earthquake-resistant design and construction for all public schools in California? What are the Alquist-Priolo Act's criteria for developing seismic zonation of the earthquake hazard in California? How did the Loma Prieta earthquake help evaluation of seismic risk? How did the 1994 Northridge earthquake affect changes of the Uniform Building Code? Why is detailed mapping and zoning (microzonation) of the earthquake risk critical for certain areas in California? How do computer models help evaluate the earthquake risk? 8. The faults of California - Do you live near a dangerous fault? How was California's Fault Zone formed? How were California's faults created? What types of faults exist in California? What is the San Andreas Fault System? Major faults of Northern California Northern San Andreas Fault Eureka and Cape Mendocino to Bodega Bodega to Los Gatos (San Francisco and Bay segment); Los Gatos to Cholame What is the seismicity of the northern segment of the San Andreas Fault System? Major faults of Northern California Hayward Fault Calaveras and Paicines Faults Pleasanton Fault Sargent Fault Green Valley, Rodgers Creek, Maacama, Healdsburg, Rinconada, Greenville, Cordelia, West Valley, Concord, Antioch, and Alexander Valley Faults Green Valley Fault Concord Fault Antioch Fault Alexander Valley Fault Fresh Water Fault Rogers Creek and Healdsburg Faults Pilarcitos, Seal Cove, San Gregorio and Hosgri Faults Owens Valley Fault Major faults of Southern California San Andreas Fault - Cholame to Cajon Pass San Andreas Fault -Cajon Pass to the Mexican Border White Wolf Fault Cucamonga Fault San Jacinto Fault System (Glen Helen, Claremont, Casa Loma, Clark, Buck Ridge, Coyote Creek, San Felipe Hills, Imperial, Superstition Hills and Superstition Mountain faults) Nacimiento Fault Santa Ynez Fault Zone (Santa Ynez, Mission Ridge, Mesa and Lavigia faults) Faults in the Los Angeles Area Newport-Inglewood Fault Zone Norwalk Fault Whittier Fault San Fernando Valley Fault Sierra Madre Fault Zone San Fernando Fault (Sylmar and Tujunga segments) Raymond Hill Fault Northridge Hills Fault Elsinore Fault Imperial Fault Submarine Faults 9. The largest historical earthquakes of California Larger Earthquakes in California from 1769 to 2000 Earthquake of 28 July 1769 Earthquake of 8 December 1812 Earthquake of 21 December, 1812 Earthquake of 10 June 1836 Earthquake of June 1838 Earthquake of 19 January 1857 (The Great Fort Tejon Earthquake) Earthquake of 3 July 1861 Earthquake of 1 October 1865 Earthquake of 8 October 1865 Earthquake of 21 October 1868 Earthquake of 26 March 1872 (The Great Owens Valley Earthquake) Earthquake of 11 April 1885 Earthquake of May 1889 Earthquake of 24 February 1892 Earthquake of 19 April 1892 Earthquake of 30 March 1898 Earthquake of 22 July 1899 Earthquake of 25 December 1899 Earthquake of July 1902 Earthquake of 18 April 1906: (The Great San Francisco Earthquake) Earthquake of 19 September 1907 Earthquake of 1 July 1911 Earthquake of 22 June 1915 Earthquake of 7 October 1915 Earthquake of 21 April 1918 Earthquake of 31 January 1922 Earthquake of 29 June 1925 Earthquake of 20 August 1927 Earthquake of 4 November 1927 Earthquake of 6 June 1932 Earthquake of 10 March 1933 (The Long Beach earthquake) Earthquake of 16 May 1933 Earthquake of 2 October, 1934 Earthquake of 18 May 1940 Earthquake of 30 June 1941 Earthquake of 14 November 1941 Earthquake of 4 December 1948 Earthquake of 21 July 1952 (The Kern County Earthquake) Earthquake of 23 October 1955 Earthquake of 8 April 1968 Earthquake of 9 February 1971 Earthquake of 1 August 1975 Earthquake of 15 October 1979 Earthquake of 2 May 1983 Earthquake of 24 April 1984 Earthquake of 1 October 1987 Earthquake of 10 June 1988 Earthquake of 27 June 1988 Earthquake of 17 October 1989 (The Loma Prieta Earthquake) Earthquake of 28 June 1991 Earthquake of 17 August 1991 Earthquake of 25 April 1992 Earthquake of 28 June 1992 Earthquake of 17 January 1994 (The Northridge Earthquake) Earthquake of 1 September 1994 Earthquake of 19 February 1995 What were the magnitudes, intensities and locations of the large destructive earthquakes in California? 10. The Fort Tejon Earthquake of 1857 - what is its significance? The January 9, 1857 Fort Tejon Earthquake What were the earthquake's foreshocks and aftershocks? What were the intensities of the ground motions? What were the earthquake's rupture, displacements and other surface effects? What were the death toll and damages? What was the significance of the 1857 earthquake for future destructive earthquakes in the area? 11. The Great San Francisco Earthquake of 18 April 1906 - What is its significance? The Great San Francisco Earthquake of 18 April 1906 What were the earthquake's rupture and ground displacements? How strong were the ground motions and earthquake intensities? How much destruction did the Great Fire Do? How Quick and Effective were the Recovery Efforts in San Francisco? What were the casualties and damages? What is the significance of the Great San Francisco Earthquake of 1906? How did geologic conditions affect earthquake intensities? Did the 1906 earthquake leave sufficient strain in the rocks which may cause another destructive earthquake in the Bay area? What caused the seismic quietness after the 1906 earthquake? What were the effects of the 1906 earthquake on the subsequent seismicity of the Bay Region and of Central California? 12. The 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake - Was it the Big One? Why is the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake significant? How strong was the Loma Prieta earthquake? What were the Loma Prieta earthquake's major aftershocks? What were the intensities and ground motions? What was unusual about the Loma Prieta's rupture, displacements and other surface effects? Did the Loma Prieta earthquake generate a tsunami? How extensive was ground liquefaction in the Bay area? What were the death toll and overall damages? What was Loma Prieta earthquake's extent of destruction in the Bay area? How extensive was the earthquake's damage in San Francisco? What happened at the Candlestick Park? What happened at the Nimitz Freeway? What happened at the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge? What was the extent of damage in the region south of San Francisco? What relief and recovery efforts were undertaken? Was the Loma Prieta earthquake the long awaited Big One? What is the significance of the Loma Prieta Earthquake for future destructive earthquakes in the Bay Area? How did the Loma Prieta event relate to past earthquakes? What is Loma Prieta's significance for future destructive earthquakes in the Bay area? 13. The Northridge Earthquake of 1994 - What was learned from it? The Earthquake of 17 January 1994 (Northridge Earthquake) Why is the 1994 Northridge earthquake significant? What were the death toll and damages? Which are the dangerous faults of San Fernando Valley? What was the rupture of the fault that caused the 1994 Northridge Earthquake? What was unusual about the 1994 Northridge earthquake's intensities and ground motions? Why valleys, like San Fernando, are more susceptible to the earthquake hazard? What was learned from the 1994 Northridge earthquake's ground motions, surface effects and damages? How does the 1994 Northridge earthquake compare to the 1971 San Fernando Earthquake? What retrofit programs and building code changes were established as a result of the Northridge earthquake? What are the implications of the Northridge earthquake for future destructive events in the Los Angeles Metropolitan area? 14. Can California Earthquakes be Controlled or Prevented? What type of man-made earthquakes have been observed? What do field and laboratory experiments indicate? What research has been proposed for control of earthquakes in California? What are some of the social and economic implications of earthquake control measures? Will control of California earthquakes be feasible in the future? ORDER BOOK 15. California's Tsunami Threat - Will the Big One generate a destructive tsunami? What destructive tsunamis have been in United States and worldwide? Tsunami - Some Basic Concepts What is a tsunami? What is the origin and meaning of the word "tsunami"? Is a tsunami the same thing as a "tidal wave"? Is a tsunami the same thing as a "seismic sea wave"? What are the causes of tsunamis? Where are tsunamis more frequently generated? How do earthquakes generate tsunamis? How big are the earthquakes that generate tsunamis? How volcanic explosions generate tsunamis? How landslides generate tsunamis? Can asteroids and meteorites cause tsunamis? What is the height of a tsunami in the deep ocean? How does tsunami energy travel across the ocean and how far can tsunami waves travel? How fast do tsunamis travel in the deep ocean? Why cant' tsunamis be seen at sea or from the air? What happens when a tsunami reaches the shore? How high can tsunamis reach? What is the tsunami runup? What kind of earthquakes generate large tsunamis? What determines how destructive a tsunami will be locally and at distant shore? The Tsunami Threat of California How quickly will a tsunami generated in Alaska or the Aleutian islands reach California? What is the history of tsunamis in California? How frequent are tsunamis in California? What is the tsunami threat from local California earthquakes? What kind of tsunami did the Cape Mendocino earthquake of April 25, 1992 generate? Did the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake in California generate a small tsunami? What kind of tsunami did the Santa Barbara earthquake of November 4, 1927 generate? What kind of tsunamis did the Santa Barbara earthquakes of 1812 generate? What are some of the conflicting reports about the 1812 Santa Barbara tsunami? What is the tsunami threat in California from distant earthquake sources? What were the effects of the 1964 Alaska tsunami in California? How was Crescent City affected by the tsunami waves of the 1964 great Alaska earthquake? What is California's tsunami threat from an earthquake on the Cascadia Subduction Zone? How will California be affected by a tsunami originating from an earthquake on the Cascadia Subduction Zone? What is California's overall tsunami threat? Will the Big One generate a destructive tsunami in California? What is the International Tsunami Warning System? How does the Tsunami Warning System work? What are the capabilities and the limitations of the Tsunami Warning System? How are tsunami warnings disseminated in California? How effective is the Tsunami Warning System in California? 16. Where in California Will The Big One Strike? Why and how do scientists study the faults where past big earthquake have occurred? What kind of research is going on presently? What does the geographical distribution of the larger earthquakes on the San Andreas fault system indicate? What do past earthquake clustering patterns and movements near and away from the San Andreas fault suggest? What does the absence of small earthquakes from the San Andreas segments of the 1857 and 1906 events indicate? Where are the present seismic gaps on the San Andreas fault system? Where are seismic gaps in the Bay Area where additional earthquakes will occur? What has been learned from measurements of ground movements? What do past earthquake ground movements reveal? What do measurements of aseismic creep imply? What does the fault break of the 1857 earthquake suggest? Where are the present locked segments of the San Andreas Fault? What does the seismic quietness of the San Andreas segments of the Carrizo Plain and the Mojave signify? What does the higher level of seismicity in the Big Bend area of the San Andreas reflect? What is happening presently at the southern end of the 1857 earthquake rupture of the San Andreas fault? What do the differences in earthquake depths convey? What was learned from the studies of the Palmdale uplift? Where are the sites of future large earthquakes in Northern California? Was the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake the one expected, or is there another one coming? Where are the sites of future large earthquakes in Southern California? Where in California will the Big One most likely strike? 17. When will the Big One strike? How often do earthquakes occur worldwide? What is the global frequency of earthquakes of any given magnitude? What is the global frequency of larger earthquakes? Can Plate Tectonics help estimate when earthquakes will occur in California? Why and how past seismic activity is studied to determine when large earthquakes will strike again California? Why are past earthquakes studied? How are past earthquakes studied? What do clues from past earthquakes reveal? How are measurements of strain used to estimate when large earthquakes will occur in the future? Did the Parkfield Experiment help in the prediction of the Big One? How often and where earthquakes can be expected in Northern California? What does the pattern of renewed earthquake activity in Northern California indicate? When will moderate earthquakes occur again in the Bay Area? Is a major earthquake highly likely to occur in Northern California? What does the pattern of past earthquake activity in Southern California indicate? How often and where major earthquakes can be expected in Southern California? Is a major earthquake highly likely to occur soon in Southern California? Will the Big One Strike California Unannounced? Will small or moderate earthquakes proceed the Big One? Will precursory events and phenomena herald the Big One's arrival? When will the Big One strike? How often and where major earthquakes can be expected to strike along the San Andreas Fault? What is the significance of the recent increase in earthquake activity in the Bay Area? Do studies of strain in Northern California indicate when the Big One will strike? What is the Probability of Occurrence of Major Earthquakes in California? When will the Big One strike Northern California and the Bay Area? When will the Big One strike Southern California? The book includes also a comprehensive Glossary and a list of Cities, towns and localities that are in close proximity to major faults and will be affected by earthquakes in the future. THE BIG ONE - The Next Great California Earthquake is now available from Amazon, Barnes and Noble and other major bookstores. Copies autographed by the author can be also ordered by contacting directly by email Aston Forbes Press. Return to Links to other Pages now available from Amazon, Barnes and Noble and other major bookstores. It can be also ordered by contacting directly Aston Forbes Press. Now available from Amazon, Barnes and Noble and other major bookstores. A signed by the author copy can be also ordered by contacting directly by email Aston Forbes Press. 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